Joint Bayesian inference of Earth's magnetic field and core surface flow on millennial timescales

Andreas Nilsson; Neil Suttie; Marie Troyano; Nicolas Gillet; Julien Aubert; Anders Irbäck

doi:10.46298/jsedi.17320

Article

Joint Bayesian inference of Earth's magnetic field and core surface flow on millennial timescales

Andreas Nilsson⁽¹⁾, Neil Suttie⁽¹⁾, Marie Troyano⁽¹⁾, Nicolas Gillet, Julien Aubert⁽²⁾, Anders Irbäck

(1) Lund University

(2) Institut de physique du globe de Paris

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January 16, 2026

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March 26, 2026

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March 30, 2026

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August 7, 2026

Volume 2

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10.46298/jsedi.17320

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Joint Bayesian inference of Earth's magnetic field and core surface flow on millennial timescales

Andreas Nilsson⁽¹⁾, Neil Suttie⁽¹⁾, Marie Troyano⁽¹⁾, Nicolas Gillet, Julien Aubert⁽²⁾, Anders Irbäck

(1) Lund University

(2) Institut de physique du globe de Paris

Abstract

Understanding Earth's core dynamics over millennial timescales requires models that jointly describe the evolution of the geomagnetic field and core surface flow, while accommodating the sparse, irregular, and uncertain nature of archaeomagnetic and palaeomagnetic data. We present a new Bayesian core field and core flow modelling framework that utilises archaeo/palaeomagnetic data directly, combining a reduced stochastic representation of core surface dynamics derived from numerical geodynamo statistics with a probabilistic treatment of observational and chronological uncertainties. A key innovation is an efficient discrete marginalisation of age uncertainties, which avoids the convergence difficulties associated with co-estimating ages in high-dimensional Hamiltonian Monte Carlo inversions. The framework aims to reconstruct the coupled evolution of the geomagnetic field and core surface flow over the past 9000 years while preserving dynamical correlations implied by the prior geodynamo time series. Tests using synthetic data generated from an Earth-like geodynamo demonstrate that the method reliably recovers large-scale geomagnetic field variations and key aspects of core dynamics, including long-term westward drift and the evolution of planetary-scale eccentric gyres. These results show that, when combined with physically informed priors, archaeo/palaeomagnetic data can constrain millennial-scale core flow, paving the way for reconstructions based on real data. 19 pages, 13 figures

Keywords

Geophysics

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References

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DOI : 10.1016/j.quageo.2023.101459
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DOI : 10.1093/gji/ggu064
Aubert, J. State and evolution of the geodynamo from numerical models reaching the physical conditions of Earth’s core. Geophys. J. Int. 235.1, 468–487. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggad229.
DOI : 10.1093/gji/ggad229
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DOI : 10.1038/nature12574
Aubert, J., Gastine, T., & Fournier, A. Spherical convective dynamos in the rapidly rotating asymptotic regime. J. Fluid Mech. 813, 558–593. doi: 10.1017/jfm.2016.789.
DOI : 10.1017/jfm.2016.789
Aubert, J., & Gillet, N. The interplay of fast waves and slow convection in geodynamo simulations nearing Earth’s core conditions. Geophys. J. Int. 225.3, 1854–1873. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggab054.
DOI : 10.1093/gji/ggab054
Aubert, J., M. Landeau, A. Fournier, and T. Gastine (2025). Core-surface kinematic control of polarity reversals in advanced geodynamo simulations. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 364, 107365. doi: 10.1016/j.pepi.2025.107365.
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Bohsung, L., M. Schanner, M. Korte, and M. Holschneider (2024). Estimating Post-Depositional Detrital Remanent Magnetization (pDRM) Effects for Several Lacustrine and Marine Sediment Records Using a Flexible Lock-In Function Approach. J. Geophys. Res. 129.7, e2024JB028864. doi: 10.1029/2024JB028864.
DOI : 10.1029/2024JB028864
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Constable, C., Korte, M., & Panovska, S. Persistent high paleosecular variation activity in southern hemisphere for at least 10,000 years.
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Dumberry, M., & Bloxham, J. Azimuthal flows in the Earth’s core and changes in length of day at millennial timescales.
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Dumberry, M., & Finlay, C. C. Eastward and westward drift of the Earth’s magnetic field for the last three millennia.
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Finlay, C. C., Kloss, C., Olsen, N., Hammer, M. D., Tøffner-Clausen, L., Grayver, A., & Kuvshinov, A. The CHAOS-7 geomagnetic field model and observed changes in the South Atlantic Anomaly.
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Gillet, N., Jault, D., Finlay, C. C., & Olsen, N. Stochastic modeling of the Earth’s magnetic field: Inversion for covariances over the observatory era.
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Gillet, N., Gerick, F., Jault, D., Schwaiger, T., Aubert, J., & Istas, M. Satellite magnetic data reveal interannual waves in Earth’s core.
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Huder, L., Gillet, N., & Thollard, F. pygeodyn 1.1.0: a Python package for geomagnetic data assimilation.
DOI : 10.5194/gmd-12-3795-2019
Hyodo, M. Possibility of Reconstruction of the Past Geomagnetic Field from Homogeneous Sediments.
DOI : 10.5636/jgg.36.45
Istas, M., Gillet, N., Finlay, C. C., Hammer, M. D., & Huder, L. Transient Core Surface Dynamics from Ground and Satellite Geomagnetic Data.
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Kiani Shahvandi, M., Noir, J., Mishra, S., & Soja, B. Length of {{Day Variations Explained}} in a {{Bayesian Framework}}.
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Joint Bayesian inference of Earth's magnetic field and core surface flow on millennial timescales

Andreas Nilsson⁽¹⁾, Neil Suttie⁽¹⁾, Marie Troyano⁽¹⁾, Nicolas Gillet, Julien Aubert⁽²⁾, Anders Irbäck

(1) Lund University

(2) Institut de physique du globe de Paris

Joint Bayesian inference of Earth's magnetic field and core surface flow on millennial timescales

Andreas Nilsson⁽¹⁾, Neil Suttie⁽¹⁾, Marie Troyano⁽¹⁾, Nicolas Gillet, Julien Aubert⁽²⁾, Anders Irbäck

(1) Lund University

(2) Institut de physique du globe de Paris

Abstract

Keywords

Geophysics

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References

Allington, M. L., Nilsson, A., Hill, M. J., Suttie, N., Daniil, D., Hjorth, I., Aulin, L., Augustinus, P. C., & Shane, P. Constraining the Eruption History of {{Rangitoto}} Volcano, {{New Zealand}}, Using Palaeomagnetic Data. Quat. Geochronol. 78, 101459. doi: 10.1016/j.quageo.2023.101459.
DOI : 10.1016/j.quageo.2023.101459
Aubert, J. Earth’s core internal dynamics 1840–2010 imaged by inverse geodynamo modelling. Geophys. J. Int. 197.3, 1321–1334. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggu064.
DOI : 10.1093/gji/ggu064
Aubert, J. State and evolution of the geodynamo from numerical models reaching the physical conditions of Earth’s core. Geophys. J. Int. 235.1, 468–487. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggad229.
DOI : 10.1093/gji/ggad229
Aubert, J., Finlay, C. C., & Fournier, A. Bottom-up control of geomagnetic secular variation by the Earth’s inner core. Nature 502.7470, 219–223. doi: 10.1038/nature12574.
DOI : 10.1038/nature12574
Aubert, J., Gastine, T., & Fournier, A. Spherical convective dynamos in the rapidly rotating asymptotic regime. J. Fluid Mech. 813, 558–593. doi: 10.1017/jfm.2016.789.
DOI : 10.1017/jfm.2016.789
Aubert, J., & Gillet, N. The interplay of fast waves and slow convection in geodynamo simulations nearing Earth’s core conditions. Geophys. J. Int. 225.3, 1854–1873. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggab054.
DOI : 10.1093/gji/ggab054
Aubert, J., M. Landeau, A. Fournier, and T. Gastine (2025). Core-surface kinematic control of polarity reversals in advanced geodynamo simulations. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 364, 107365. doi: 10.1016/j.pepi.2025.107365.
DOI : 10.1016/j.pepi.2025.107365
Blaauw, M. and J. A. Christen (2011). Flexible paleoclimate age-depth models using an autoregressive gamma process. Bayesian Anal. 6.3, 457–474. doi: 10.1214/ba/1339616472.
DOI : 10.1214/ba/1339616472
Blow, R. A. and N. Hamilton (1978). Effect of compaction on the acquisition of a detrital remanent magnetization in fine-grained sediments. Geophys. J. R. Astr. Soc. 52.1, 13– 23. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1978.tb04219.x.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1978.tb04219.x
Bohsung, L., M. Schanner, M. Korte, and M. Holschneider (2023). Estimating post-Depositional Detrital Remanent Magnetization (pDRM) Effects: A Flexible Lock-In Function Approach. J. Geophys. Res. 128.12, e2023JB027373. doi: 10.1029/2023JB027373.
DOI : 10.1029/2023JB027373
Bohsung, L., M. Schanner, M. Korte, and M. Holschneider (2024). Estimating Post-Depositional Detrital Remanent Magnetization (pDRM) Effects for Several Lacustrine and Marine Sediment Records Using a Flexible Lock-In Function Approach. J. Geophys. Res. 129.7, e2024JB028864. doi: 10.1029/2024JB028864.
DOI : 10.1029/2024JB028864
Brown, M., F. Donadini, M. Korte, A. Nilsson, K. Korhonen, A. Lodge, S. Lengyel, and C. Constable (2015). GEOMAGIA50.v3: 1. general structure and modifications to the archeological and volcanic database. Earth Planets Space 67.1, 83. doi: 10.1186/s40623-015-0232-0.
DOI : 10.1186/s40623-015-0232-0
Brown, M. C., G. Hervé, M. Korte, and A. Genevey (2021). Global archaeomagnetic data: The state of the art and future challenges. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 318, 106766. doi: 10.1016/j.pepi.2021.106766.
DOI : 10.1016/j.pepi.2021.106766
Campuzano, S., M. Gómez-Paccard, F. Pavón-Carrasco, and M. Osete (2019). Emergence and evolution of the South Atlantic Anomaly revealed by the new paleomagnetic reconstruction SHAWQ2k. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 512, 17–26. doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2019.01.050.
DOI : 10.1016/j.epsl.2019.01.050
Carpenter, B., Gelman, A., Hoffman, M. D., Lee, D., Goodrich, B., Betancourt, M., Brubaker, M., Guo, J., Li, P., & Riddell, A. Stan: A Probabilistic Programming Language.
DOI : 10.18637/jss.v076.i01
Constable, C., Korte, M., & Panovska, S. Persistent high paleosecular variation activity in southern hemisphere for at least 10,000 years.
DOI : 10.1016/j.epsl.2016.08.015
Dumberry, M., & Bloxham, J. Azimuthal flows in the Earth’s core and changes in length of day at millennial timescales.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.02903.x
Dumberry, M., & Finlay, C. C. Eastward and westward drift of the Earth’s magnetic field for the last three millennia.
DOI : 10.1016/j.epsl.2006.11.026
Finlay, C. C., Kloss, C., Olsen, N., Hammer, M. D., Tøffner-Clausen, L., Grayver, A., & Kuvshinov, A. The CHAOS-7 geomagnetic field model and observed changes in the South Atlantic Anomaly.
DOI : 10.1186/s40623-020-01252-9
Gillet, N., Huder, L., & Aubert, J. A reduced stochastic model of core surface dynamics based on geodynamo simulations.
DOI : 10.1093/gji/ggz313
Gillet, N., Dall’Asta, F., Amblard, P.-O., Claveau, R., & Aubert, J. Waves in Earth’s core and geomagnetic field forecast.
DOI : 10.1016/j.pepi.2024.107284
Gillet, N., Jault, D., Finlay, C. C., & Olsen, N. Stochastic modeling of the Earth’s magnetic field: Inversion for covariances over the observatory era.
DOI : 10.1002/ggge.20041
Gillet, N., Gerick, F., Jault, D., Schwaiger, T., Aubert, J., & Istas, M. Satellite magnetic data reveal interannual waves in Earth’s core.
DOI : 10.1073/pnas.2115258119
Hellio, G., & Gillet, N. Time-correlation-based regression of the geomagnetic field from archeological and sediment records.
DOI : 10.1093/gji/ggy214
Holme, R. 8.04 - Large-Scale Flow in the Core. Elsevier.
DOI : 10.1016/B978-0-444-53802-4.00138-X
Huder, L., Gillet, N., & Thollard, F. pygeodyn 1.1.0: a Python package for geomagnetic data assimilation.
DOI : 10.5194/gmd-12-3795-2019
Hyodo, M. Possibility of Reconstruction of the Past Geomagnetic Field from Homogeneous Sediments.
DOI : 10.5636/jgg.36.45
Istas, M., Gillet, N., Finlay, C. C., Hammer, M. D., & Huder, L. Transient Core Surface Dynamics from Ground and Satellite Geomagnetic Data.
DOI : 10.1093/gji/ggad039
Kiani Shahvandi, M., Noir, J., Mishra, S., & Soja, B. Length of {{Day Variations Explained}} in a {{Bayesian Framework}}.
DOI : 10.1029/2024GL111148
Langel, R. A. Ch 4 - The main geomagnetic field. Academic Press.
Licht, A., Hulot, G., Gallet, Y., & Thébault, E. Ensembles of low degree archeomagnetic field models for the past three millennia.
DOI : 10.1016/j.pepi.2013.08.007
Lloyd, D., & Gubbins, D. Toroidal fluid motion at the top of the Earth’s core.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1990.tb00698.x
McHutchon, A., & Rasmussen, C. E. Gaussian Process training with input noise. Curran Associates Inc.
DOI : 10.5555/2986459.2986609
Mellström, A., Nilsson, A., Stanton, T., Muscheler, R., Snowball, I., & Suttie, N. Post-depositional remanent magnetization lock-in depth in precisely dated varved sediments assessed by archaeomagnetic field models.
DOI : 10.1016/j.epsl.2014.11.016
Meynadier, L., & Valet, J.-P. Post-depositional realignment of magnetic grains and asymmetrical saw-tooth patterns of magnetization intensity.
DOI : 10.1016/0012-821X(96)00018-0
Morrison, L. V., & Stephenson, F. R. Historical eclipses and the variability of the Earth’s rotation.
DOI : 10.1016/s0264-3707(01)00024-2
Mound, J. E., & Davies, C. J. Longitudinal structure of Earth’s magnetic field controlled by lower mantle heat flow.
DOI : 10.1038/s41561-023-01148-9
Neumaier, A., & Schneider, T. Estimation of parameters and eigenmodes of multivariate autoregressive models.
DOI : 10.1145/382043.382304
Nilsson, A., Holme, R., Korte, M., Suttie, N., & Hill, M. J. Reconstructing Holocene geomagnetic field variation: New methods, models and implications.
DOI : 10.1093/gji/ggu120
Nilsson, A., Nguyen, L., Panovska, S., Herbst, K., Zheng, M., Suttie, N., & Muscheler, R. Holocene solar activity inferred from global and hemispherical cosmic-ray proxy records.
DOI : 10.1038/s41561-024-01467-5
Nilsson, A., & Suttie, N. Probabilistic approach to geomagnetic field modelling of data with age uncertainties and post-depositional magnetisations.
DOI : 10.1016/j.pepi.2021.106737
Nilsson, A., Suttie, N., & Hill, M. J. Short-Term Magnetic Field Variations From the Post-depositional Remanence of Lake Sediments.
DOI : 10.3389/feart.2018.00039
Nilsson, A., Suttie, N., Korte, M., Holme, R., & Hill, M. Persistent westward drift of the geomagnetic field at the core–mantle boundary linked to recurrent high-latitude weak/reverse flux patches.
DOI : 10.1093/gji/ggaa249
Nilsson, A., Suttie, N., Stoner Joseph, S., & Muscheler, R. Recurrent ancient geomagnetic field anomalies shed light on future evolution of the South Atlantic Anomaly.
DOI : 10.1073/pnas.2200749119
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